Analysts have long viewed the Arctic as a successful example of multilateral cooperation, with broad agreement among nations to keep the region conflict-free. However, that ambition now faces increasing challenges as climate change and the shifting geopolitical landscape bring into question who will have access to the region’s resources and how they will be used.
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is some 1,500 kilometers south of the Arctic Circle, but it has shown interest in playing a major role in the region’s development, largely by leveraging its relationship with Russia, which controls about half of the Arctic’s shoreline. The melting of Arctic ice will open potential new trade routes and increases access to natural resources, including oil and natural gas.
While nations work to find sustainable ways to manage the evolving Arctic, some United States and NATO officials are concerned about increased militarization in the region. Notably, Russia has launched an ambitious plan to remilitarize the Arctic and wants to expand its borderline in the region, according to multiple news reports. The PRC’s interests remain less clear, said Adm. Rob Bauer, chairman of NATO’s military committee.
“China’s intentions for this region are not transparent,” Bauer told attendees at the Arctic Circle Assembly in October 2023. “We cannot be naive and expect these new routes to solely be used by commercial vessels.” He noted that the PRC is the largest investor in Russia’s Power of Siberia pipeline, a multiphase project aimed at increasing the supply of liquid natural gas to the PRC, offsetting exports to Europe, which have fallen since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia has been shipping crude oil to China via the Northern Sea Route, which connects the Baltic and Bering seas using non-ice class oil tankers and forgoing “general principals of ice protection,” Bauer said.
From Science to Silk Road
The PRC began scientific research in the Arctic in the 1990s. The country has two permanent scientific research stations in the Arctic, one in Norway’s Svalbard archipelago and one in Iceland. A third station, located in Sweden, is under review because of suspected ties to the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) People’s Liberation Army (PLA). The country has leveraged these activities to gain greater influence in regional affairs. In 2013, the PRC was among five Indo-Pacific nations to become Observers to the Arctic Council, the leading intergovernmental forum to promote cooperation in the Arctic region. In 2017, Xi Jinping, general secretary of the CCP, announced plans to build a “Polar Silk Road,” part of the PRC’s One Belt, One Road infrastructure scheme. The route would cut roughly in half the transit time for shipments between China and Europe. The following year, the PRC published its first official Arctic policy, stating the country’s goal was “to understand, protect, develop and participate in the governance of the Arctic, so as to safeguard the common interest of all countries and the international community in the Arctic, and promote sustainable development of the Arctic.”
Several Arctic countries have voiced concerns about the PRC’s activities in the region, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington, D.C. think tank, said in an April 2023 report. A 2018 government restructuring moved the country’s Arctic research program to a new Ministry of Natural Resources, placing it under the same roof as the country’s South China Sea research, which is reportedly aimed at helping the PLA Navy operate more effectively. The move prompted the Swedish Space Corp. to halt work with the PRC at its ground stations.
Beijing’s Arctic ambitions have been stymied by Russia’s war with Ukraine. Interest among Nordic countries to work with the PRC cooled after Beijing declined to condemn Russia’s invasion, instead talking up the two countries’ “no-limits” partnership. Talk of the Polar Silk Road, which the PRC pledged to complete by 2025, has faded during Russia’s war with Ukraine. China and Russia, however, continue to work together on Arctic projects. The PRC is building ships for Russia, and the two counties have conducted joint military maneuvers in the Arctic.
“In this context, the increasing cooperation between Russia and China is potentially a source of concern,” Tjorven Bellmann, German Ministry of Foreign Affairs political director, said at the Arctic Circle Berlin Forum in May 2024. “Freedom of navigation and secure maritime routes are crucial for the global economy, however, we need to be prepared to react to challenges to the security of the region.”