Sentry Staff
Security analysts say the accession of Finland and Sweden into the 75-year-old NATO Alliance will strengthen each nation’s own security posture, better protect the Baltic Sea and Europe’s eastern flank, and bolster those regions’ air and sea capabilities. After decades of military nonalignment, the two nations asked to join the Alliance in 2022 — a decision prompted by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The move marks the most significant NATO expansion since the Alliance welcomed members from Eastern Europe after the Soviet Union collapsed in 1991. It is also a blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who has sought to block any further strengthening of NATO.
“As we face a more dangerous world, the bond between Europe and North America has never been more important,” then-NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg said in an April 2024 news conference at NATO headquarters in Brussels. “We will continue to strengthen our Alliance and we will continue to work with our partners across the globe for peace and security.”
Finland and Sweden share a history that dates back hundreds of years. Finland was part of the Kingdom of Sweden — accounting for the nation’s eastern half — until 1809, when the area now known as Finland became part of the Russian Empire as a result of Europe’s Napoleonic Wars. In 1917, the Grand Duchy of Finland declared its independence from Russia amid the Russian Revolution. In the mid-1990s, both countries joined NATO’s Partnership for Peace and the European Union. Each nation applied to join NATO in May 2022, three months after Russia invaded Ukraine.
“Sweden and Finland therefore not only share a common history; we share a common future,” Swedish Prime Minister Ulf Kristersson said at an April 2024 joint news conference with Finnish President Alexander Stubb in Stockholm.
The two nations joining NATO comes at a significant time. Europe’s High North is poised to become an increasingly strategic region with the potential to alter global geopolitical dynamics, Cmdr. Rachael Gosnell, U.S. Navy, and Dr. Katrin Bastian, Marshall Center professor, wrote in per Concordiam, a magazine published by U.S. European Command for military and security personnel. Over the past decade, interest in the economically rich and environmentally fragile region has grown significantly as a warming climate opens new maritime corridors. The region’s geopolitical, technological, economic and environmental developments are attracting interest from not only the eight Arctic nations — Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the United States — but also from actors such as the People’s Republic of China (PRC), India and Japan. At the same time, the rise in tensions precipitated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and Finland’s and Sweden’s inclusion as full NATO members, significantly alters the region’s dynamics. It also shifts the Alliance’s center of gravity north while linking the Baltic Sea to the North Atlantic and Arctic, merging what were previously considered separate theaters into a single strategic space and leveraging Finland’s and Sweden’s existing collaborative military relationship.
A history of nonalignment
Finland fought two major conflicts during World War II, the defensive Winter War against the Soviet Union from November 1939 to March 1940, and the Continuation War alongside the Axis powers, from 1941-1944. Despite adhering to a stance of military nonalignment after World War II, the country has developed a well-equipped military over the decades. In addition, the country, which has a population of 5.5 million, has a large conscripted force, including 24,000 active personnel, a fully mobilized army of 280,000 and nearly 900,000 reservists.
Finland’s relationship with NATO began in 1994, when the country joined the Partnership for Peace (PFP), a NATO program aimed at establishing strong links between the Alliance, new democratic nations in the former Soviet bloc and traditionally neutral countries. In 1997, Finland joined the Euro-Atlantic Partnership Council (EAPC), a forum of 50 countries in the Euro-Atlantic. Finland has supported NATO-led operations and missions in Afghanistan, the Balkans and Iraq. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine pulled Finland from its nonalignment stance. As many as 80% of Finns supported their country joining NATO, according to opinion polls.
During WWII, Sweden had a policy of neutrality, a holdover from the Napoleonic Wars that limited the country’s involvement to peacekeeping actions and support functions. In the 1950s, the country built up its military assets, achieving status as the world’s fourth-largest air force. After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, however, the Swedish government began cutting defense spending. The country ended conscription in 2010, reintroducing it in 2017 over concerns about Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea and Baltic military drills. The country also began increasing defense spending in 2015 to reopen some military sites. With a population of 10.6 million people, Sweden has about 24,000 active personnel, 11,400 reservists and about 21,000 home guard. A Swedish parliamentary committee has recommended the country continue to increase defense spending and recruitment efforts to counter emerging threats. Like Finland, Sweden joined PFP in 1994 and EAPC in 1997. The country has supported many NATO missions, including those in Afghanistan, Iraq, Kosovo and Libya.
Following the accession of Finland and Sweden, political cooperation in the north and with the Baltic states will deepen. Today, all Baltic Sea countries — except for Russia — are members of the alliance.”
~ Veronika Wand-Danielsson, Sweden’s ambassador to Germany
Sweden also saw a positive surge in public opinion for joining NATO, with support stable at 67%, up from 29% in 2021, Veronika Wand-Danielsson, Sweden’s ambassador to Germany, wrote in an article for Atlantik-Brüke, a Berlin-based nonprofit organization that supports Atlanticism. “Following the accession of Finland and Sweden, political cooperation in the north and with the Baltic states will deepen,” she said. “Today, all Baltic Sea countries — except for Russia — are members of the Alliance.”
The path to accession
Finland and Sweden submitted official letters of application for NATO membership in May 2022, despite threats from Russia that joining the Alliance would result in “military and political consequences.” That July, following the Madrid Summit of NATO leaders, all 30 allied countries signed accession protocols for both countries. Finland joined the Alliance in March 2023, followed by Sweden in January 2024.
NATO’s northern expansion
After NATO confirmed Sweden’s accession to the Alliance, Russia reacted immediately, saying the country would adopt unspecified military, technical and other countermeasures to protect itself from what it called an “aggressive military bloc,” echoing rhetoric from Moscow after Finland’s accession a year earlier.
The NATO expansion sends an important signal to Putin as he wages war in Ukraine and threatens other neighbors, Anna Wieslander, director for Northern Europe at the Atlantic Council, told The Washington Post: “That he cannot dictate, and if he does, there will be pushback.”
Compared with Russia, the PRC’s official response to Finland’s and Sweden’s application to NATO was muted. Zhao Lijian, at the time the PRC’s foreign ministry spokesperson, said that adding the two countries to the Alliance would “naturally add new factors to the bilateral relations.” Reports in Chinese state-run media took a stronger stance, indicating that Beijing did not support NATO’s “northern expansion.”
China Observers in Central and Eastern Europe (CHOICE), a Prague-based multinational consortium that studies Chinese policy and activities in Central and Eastern Europe, reported that Chinese media articles decrying Finland’s and Sweden’s accession to NATO mirrored Russia’s objections, “completing Russia’s strategic encirclement” and benefitting only the U.S. In addition, Chinese commentators assert that NATO membership, particularly for Finland, is a bad decision, and “Finland is apparently unable to see the bigger picture, since Russia allegedly does not form a threat of any kind to Finland.”
Consolidating the Nordic bloc
Stubb told reporters at an April 2024 news conference in Sweden that joining NATO has transformed his country into a “front-line state.” He was referring to Finland’s 1,340-kilometer border with Russia, which provides strategic access for NATO to defend the Baltic Sea and Gulf of Bothnia and puts the Alliance closer to St. Petersburg and the Kola Peninsula in Russia’s far northwest. In response to Putin’s pledge to deploy more Russian troops to its northwest border, Finland is reinforcing key bases in its north. The country has also increased participation in NATO’s Baltic air policing.
A few months after joining the Alliance, Finland’s defense ministry announced plans to host two NATO test centers for new technologies and a business accelerator, approved by NATO’s Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic. One test center will focus on cyber secure communication and quantum and space technologies. The other will focus on 6G network technologies. The business accelerator will help businesses bring new technology to government and commercial markets.
Geography is also one of Sweden’s most significant contributions to NATO. Kristersson said in a January 2023 speech at the Folk och Försvar national defense and security conference that his country has sovereign air space spanning 1,600 kilometers, stretching from the Baltic Sea to the Arctic Circle, and the longest coastline on the Baltic and North seas. Together with Finland and long-standing members Denmark and Norway, Sweden’s accession will consolidate the Nordic bloc under the NATO umbrella and strengthen the Alliance’s northern flank. It essentially transforms the Baltic Sea into a NATO lake. The country’s military, while small, is well-equipped, modern and supported by a strong industrial base.
With (existing) NATO nations Norway and Denmark, now we have a whole bloc. And thinking about potential defense plans, it’s for us a huge step forward, to consider it as a whole area now.”
~ Lt. Col. Michael Maus, NATO’s Allied Command Transformation
The two nations’ entry into the Alliance gives a boost to NATO’s air power, which had diminished since the end of the Cold War. Finland has ordered 64 F-35 fighter jets, the largest order in Europe after the United Kingdom, according to the Modern War Institute (MWI) at the U.S. Military Academy. Swedish forces operate about 75 JAS 39 Gripens, supersonic multirole fighter aircraft with electronic warfare capabilities, MWI reported. Sweden’s contributions will also include a new generation of submarines, effectively closing the Baltic Sea, Rear Adm. Fredrik Linden, director of Naval Systems Division at Swedish Defence Material Administration, told Reuters in July 2023.
“For NATO it’s quite important to have now the whole northern part, to see it as a whole piece,” Lt. Col. Michael Maus from NATO’s Allied Command Transformation told Reuters. Maus chaired the working group that led Finland’s military integration into NATO. “With (existing) NATO nations Norway and Denmark, now we have a whole bloc. And thinking about potential defense plans, it’s for us a huge step forward, to consider it as a whole area now.”
In the coming months, the integration of NATO’s two newest members into the Alliance will continue. Gen. Christopher Cavoli, Commander of U.S. European Command, is looking at potential sites to expand army prepositioned stock sites in the High North, which would facilitate quick movement of equipment and munitions when needed for exercises or during conflict.
With the Baltic-Nordic bloc solidified, leaders of those countries are working to deepen ties and address security concerns as NATO’s two newest members continue to integrate their capabilities into the Alliance.
“Finland and Sweden play a key role in promoting peace,” Stubb said at the April 2024 Stockholm news conference. “It sounds paradoxical, but that is precisely why we want a strong military and why we joined NATO.”