The geopolitical landscape is undergoing a seismic shift as China, Iran, North Korea and Russia embark on an unprecedented level of cooperation. These burgeoning partnerships — while not codified — raise significant concerns among Indo-Pacific nations, NATO and the United States. The implications of their cooperation are profound, threatening the stable and open international system and democratic values shared by the U.S. and its Allies and Partners.
In recent months, their collaboration has manifested in various forms, from joint military exercises to coordinated diplomatic efforts — and the four countries form what the U.S. government in December 2024 described as an “axis of upheaval” and a “quartet of chaos.” In September 2024, China and Russia conducted combined naval drills in the South China Sea, showcasing their growing military synergy. North Korea in September 2024 participated in a series of missile tests indicating some alignment with these exercises. This synchronized show of strength has sent ripples through the international community.
News of expanded connections between two or more of them comes more often. As recently as January 2025, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a landmark cooperation treaty to deepen trade, military, science, education and cultural ties, as they attempt to counter Western influence, according to Newsweek magazine. The same month, Putin ordered his government to build cooperation with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) in artificial intelligence (AI). Some analysts viewed the latter as an attempt by Moscow to circumvent Western sanctions intended to restrict Russia’s access to technologies it needs to sustain its war against Ukraine and to challenge U.S. dominance in this crucial area, according to Reuters.
“Animated by shared grievances against the configuration of the international order and mutual concerns about perceived threats, principally from the United States, the Sino-Russian partnership has deepened over the last decade across the military, economic and diplomatic domains,” according to a commentary on the Russian-Sino relationship and its threats to vital U.S. interests, published in December 2024 by the Brookings Institution, a think tank in Washington, D.C.
JUSTIN WOLPERT/U.S. NAVY
The strategic implications of this cooperation are vast. Beijing, with its economic and military might, provides the backbone of this partnership. Moscow, leveraging its extensive arsenal and strategic know-how, complements China’s capabilities. North Korea, with its unpredictable and often provocative actions, adds a layer of complexity that keeps adversaries on edge. Together, these nations form a trio that poses potentially significant challenges to global security.
Gen. Anthony Cotton, Commander of U.S. Strategic Command, said that advancements by adversaries in AI and military capabilities require “constant vigilance and adaptation.”
“We’re ahead of them, and we simply must maintain and expand that lead,” Gen. Cotton said during his keynote address at the U.S. Department of Defense Intelligence Information System conference in October 2024. “The bottom line is that we need to be prepared to fight in any domain at a time and place of our choosing, and we must ensure that our adversaries recognize this strength.”
A ‘Strategic Mistake’
NATO leaders have called the resource blending of the CCP, Iran, North Korea and Russia a destabilizing factor in global security. “We face a more dangerous and uncertain world. There is war in Europe. We see China, Iran, North Korea and Russia joining forces to undermine us, and threats continue to transcend borders,” NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte told an annual NATO Parliamentary Assembly in November 2024. “It is vital that NATO becomes stronger, more capable and more agile. This is exactly what we are doing.”
One major challenge facing NATO is the thousands of North Korean troops who traveled to fight alongside Russian soldiers in Ukraine, which the chairman of NATO’s military committee called a “strategic mistake.”
“It is a huge change that North Korea, the most isolated country in the world, now suddenly is a player, that they are in Europe fighting for the Russians,” Royal Netherlands Navy Adm. Rob Bauer, then chairman of the NATO Military Committee, said in January 2025, Türkiye’s Anadolu Agency reported. “It means that the Indo-Pacific is now suddenly connected to the European theater in a way that nobody thought possible. That has huge consequences.”
The U.S. Department of Defense (DOD) echoed these sentiments long before the North’s involvement in Ukraine.
BREANNA CHRISTOPHER VOLKMAR/U.S. Air force
In a July 2024 report, the DOD highlighted the growing military capabilities of the Chinese Communist Party, North Korea and Russia and the potential threats they pose. The report underscored the importance of enhancing the interoperability and readiness of allied forces to counter any aggressive actions from them.
“Russia, China, North Korea and Iran independently pose significant threats to American security and interests abroad. But what makes them even more dangerous is that they are acting in a deliberate and coordinated way to overturn the liberal world order created and nurtured by the United States since the end of the second World War — a system that has allowed freedom, democracy and economic prosperity to flourish,” David J. Trachtenberg, vice president of the National Institute for Public Policy (NIPP), a think tank focusing on U.S. foreign and defense policies, said during a July 2024 NIPP symposium on “Emergence of A New ‘Quad:’ The Growing Entente Between China, Russia, North Korea, and Iran.” “This emerging anti-American and anti-Western ‘Quad of instability’ represents a serious new challenge, not only for the United States but for U.S. Allies … and strategic Partners who have come to rely on the United States to help deter aggression against them. As Russia, China, North Korea and Iran continue to develop and expand their military relationships and work together more closely to upset the established world order, America’s Allies and Partners will be watching carefully to see how the United States seeks to counter this dangerous new entente.”
Impacts on Global Security
The consequences of this cooperation extend beyond regional concerns. The potential for increased military confrontations and the erosion of established international norms poses a global threat. The coordinated actions of Beijing, Moscow, Pyongyang and Tehran could lead to a new arms race, with nations scrambling to enhance their military capabilities in response.
Moreover, the collaboration among these nations undermines efforts to address global challenges such as nuclear nonproliferation. North Korea’s continued development of its nuclear program, bolstered by its cooperation with China and Russia, exacerbates the risk of nuclear conflict. The international community faces an uphill battle in curbing these developments and ensuring compliance with existing treaties.
In response to these threats, the U.S., NATO and like-minded European and Indo-Pacific nations are enhancing their interoperability and defense capabilities. The focus is on achieving a new level of integrated strategic deterrence, particularly concerning nuclear threats.
To that end, the U.S. has been at the forefront of advancing weapons technology to counter the evolving threats, making significant investments in missile defense systems, hypersonic weapons, cyber capabilities and AI. These advancements aim to provide a robust deterrent against any potential aggression from the CCP, North Korea and Russia.
NATO Allies also are investing in advanced technology to bolster their defense capabilities. The United Kingdom, for example, has prioritized the development of next-generation fighter jets and unmanned aerial systems. These advancements aim to maintain a technological edge over potential adversaries and ensure the effectiveness of allied forces.
“The increasing alignment of Russia, China, North Korea and Iran seeks to undermine the democratic norms and values we hold dear. This requires a united, strong response,” Bauer said in January 2025 during a NATO Military Committee news conference. “And that is why we are investing more time and energy in military cooperation, interoperability and exchange of knowledge and expertise with our Partners.”
As the geopolitical landscape continues to evolve, the importance of unity and cooperation among like-minded nations cannot be overstated. The stakes are high, and the path forward will require concerted efforts and unwavering resolve. The future of global security depends on the ability of the international community to adapt and respond to these new deterrence frontiers.