Sentry Contributor
Russia has declared it will not engage in discussions with the United States regarding a new nuclear treaty to replace the New START agreement, which is set to expire in 2026. The Kremlin insists that any future treaty must be broadened to include other states and address the current geopolitical landscape.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said existing conditions make it “virtually impossible” to discuss strategic offensive weapons without considering the military nuclear infrastructure in Europe and the involvement of other elements of strategic security, according to Reuters. This stance reflects Russia’s broader concerns about U.S. support for Ukraine and the overall security environment in Europe.
The New START treaty, signed in 2010, is a cornerstone of global nuclear arms control efforts. It caps the number of deployed strategic nuclear warheads for Russia and the U.S. at 1,550 for each country and limits the number of deployed and non-deployed intercontinental ballistic missiles, submarine-launched ballistic missiles, and heavy bombers equipped for nuclear armaments.
The treaty is the last remaining pillar of nuclear arms control between the two nations. While it was never formally ratified, Russia had adhered to the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty until 2023 when it dropped out. It also effectively suspended its participation in New START later that year, though both it and the U.S. reportedly continued to adhere to the limits set forth in the treaty.
In recent months, Russian officials have stated that they have updated their nuclear doctrine, lowering the threshold for the use of nuclear weapons. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced that any conventional attack on Russia supported by a nuclear power would be considered a joint attack, potentially triggering a nuclear response.
This revision of Russia’s nuclear policy is purportedly a direct response to the perceived threats from NATO and the U.S. support for Ukraine. It underscores the heightened tensions and the risk of miscalculation in the current security environment.
Peskov emphasized that any new negotiations must consider the changed conditions and the broader security context. “It would at the very least be unreasonable to insist on conducting such negotiations pretending that nothing has happened. Russia is not going to do that.” he said.
The U.S. State Department has criticized Russia’s suspension of New START, calling it “invalid” and a violation of the treaty’s terms. The department has urged Russia to return to compliance and engage in meaningful arms control discussions. The refusal to discuss a new treaty has also raised concerns among arms control advocates and international security experts, who warn the absence of a new agreement could lead to an arms race and increased global instability.
The international community has called for renewed efforts to engage Russia in arms control discussions.
United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres urged both Russia and the U.S. to resume dialogue and work towards a new agreement that addresses the current security challenges, saying “nuclear saber-rattling must stop.”
Despite the challenges, some experts remain hopeful that a new treaty can be negotiated. They argue that both countries have a shared interest in preventing an arms race and maintaining strategic stability.
The U.S. has reiterated its commitment to arms control and has called on Russia to engage in good faith negotiations. U.S. officials also indicated that they are open to discussing a broader framework that includes other nuclear-armed states and addresses emerging security threats.
However, the path to a new treaty is fraught with obstacles. The ongoing conflict in Ukraine, mutual distrust, and differing security priorities make it difficult to find common ground.
As the expiration date of the New START treaty approaches, the urgency for a new agreement grows. Without a new treaty, the world could face a future with fewer constraints on nuclear arsenals and greater risks of nuclear proliferation.