Japan Ground Self-Defense Force Lt. Gen. Nobutaka Minamikawa, Chief of Staff for the Japan Self-Defense Force Joint Operations Command, spoke with Sentry during the 2024 United States Strategic Command Deterrence Symposium in Omaha, Nebraska. He talked about a Free and Open Indo-Pacific, Japan’s engagement with regional partners, and the importance of the Japan-U.S. alliance to ensure deterrence. At the time of his interview, Nobutaka was a major general serving as Japan Joint Staff, Director General Defense Plans and Policy Department. He has since been promoted.
SENTRY: Why is deterrence important for Japan?
NOBUTAKA: As Russia’s aggression against Ukraine attests, the international community is facing the greatest challenges since the end of World War II and has entered a new era of crisis. Given [that], we cannot rule out the possibility of serious events taking place in East Asia in the future, which might undermine the foundation of the stable postwar international order.
The People’s Republic of China (PRC) is extensively and rapidly increasing its military capability, including nuclear and missile forces, and is continuing and intensifying its unilateral attempts to change the status quo by force or coercion in the East China Sea and the South China Sea. In addition, [the ] PRC has been intensifying its coercive military activities around Taiwan.
North Korea has repeatedly launched ballistic missiles and [other weapons] at a high frequency in recent years and has been rapidly advancing its nuclear and missile development programs.
Furthermore, Russia, while conducting aggression against Ukraine, has strengthened military cooperation with the PRC near Japan, such as joint navigations of naval vessels, joint flights of bombers and various training exercises.
Thus, in the face of the most severe and complex security environment of the postwar era, in order to defend Japan to the end in every situation, it is important to further enhance deterrence and response capabilities of Japan and the Japan-U.S. alliance, including through fundamental reinforcement of Japan’s defense capabilities and further strengthening extended deterrence.
SENTRY: What are the main elements of Japan’s deterrence posture?
NOBUTAKA: [They are] reinforcing Japan’s deterrence posture through its own efforts; extended deterrence by the U.S. backed by the full range of capabilities, including nuclear weapons; and close coordination between Japan Self-Defense Forces and the U.S. forces. Japan’s counterstrike capabilities with its future standoff defense capabilities and other capabilities will enhance Japan’s defense capabilities. Additionally, U.S. extended deterrence, with nuclear deterrence at its core, is essential. Furthermore, it is important to ensure that these capabilities of the two countries are closely coordinated. In this way, I believe that Japan’s deterrence is enhanced through a combination of Japan’s own efforts and U.S. extended deterrence.
SENTRY: What are the main challenges and opportunities for Japan’s deterrence in the Indo-Pacific region?
NOBUTAKA: The strong alliance between Japan and the U.S. is a major advantage. Continuing to convey the message at all opportunities and levels that the Japan-U.S. partnership is strong will further ensure deterrence. One of the challenges for the future will be to ensure that our standoff defense capabilities … continue to develop and operate as planned. As strategic attacks are not limited to nuclear weapons in recent days, I believe that the importance of initiatives in the field of conventional weapons is increasing.
SENTRY: How does Japan cooperate with the U.S. as its Ally and other nations to enhance strategic deterrence in the region?
NOBUTAKA: In dealing with the threat of nuclear weapons, U.S. extended deterrence, with nuclear deterrence, is essential. In addition, by utilizing our fundamentally reinforced defense capabilities, we can expect to contribute to a more effective demonstration of U.S. capabilities, and further reinforce the deterrence and response capabilities of the Japan-U.S. alliance. I also believe that it is extremely important to reinforce cooperation — not only with our Ally, the U.S. — but also with like-minded countries to enhance our nation’s defense capabilities.
SENTRY: How does Japan’s role in maintaining a Free and Open Indo-Pacific extend to the global stage?
NOBUTAKA: The security environments of the Indo-Pacific region and the Euro-Atlantic region [are] now inseparable. I believe that reinforcing Japan’s deterrence capabilities in the Indo-Pacific and strengthening its cooperation with the U.S., like-minded countries and partners, including Australia and NATO member states, will contribute to global peace and stability.
SENTRY: What is Japan doing to expand its relationship with the U.S.?
NOBUTAKA: The U.S. is Japan’s only Ally. [The] Japan-U.S. alliance is the cornerstone for Japan’s security policy, and we are further strengthening deterrence and response capabilities of the alliance through various fields of cooperation.
SENTRY: What countries would you like to work with more, or what countries are you currently working with to increase your deterrence capabilities?
NOBUTAKA: I believe it is important to reinforce cooperation not only with our Ally the U.S. but with like-minded countries to enhance deterrence. Japan is reinforcing cooperation with countries in the Indo-Pacific region as well as with European countries.
SENTRY: How does Japan address the challenges posed by emerging technologies in the context of strategic deterrence?
NOBUTAKA: Rapidly advancing technologies, including artificial intelligence and next-generation information and communications technologies, could change the characteristics of future warfare. In such a case, the deterrent capabilities of conventional defense forces could decline. Under these circumstances, we will actively and constructively participate in relevant discussions and international rulemaking, and [we] must maintain and enhance our deterrence capabilities by making equipment incorporating the latest technologies available for practical use as soon as possible to fundamentally reinforce defense capabilities, and by enhancing our resilience in various domains, such as the cyber domain.
SENTRY: How does Japan balance its defense capabilities with its commitment to peace and disarmament?
NOBUTAKA: Under the Japanese Constitution, Japan has built a highly effective joint defense force in line with the basic principles of maintaining an exclusively defense-oriented policy and not becoming a military power that poses a threat to other countries. We firmly maintain the Japan-U.S. Security Arrangements, adhering to the principle of civilian control of the military and observing the Three Non-Nuclear Principles: not possessing, not producing and not permitting the introduction of nuclear weapons. In this effort, we are paying attention to our transparency. Furthermore, I believe that Japan’s effective defense capabilities will contribute to deterrence, which in turn will contribute to regional peace and stability.
SENTRY: How does Japan’s strategic deterrence posture address the threat of cyberattacks?
NOBUTAKA: In order to deter malicious cyber activities and protect the people’s safety and rights, Japan will continue to have close coordination with our Ally and like-minded countries from peacetime and will take resolute responses against cyber threats, including those possibly sponsored by states, utilizing political, economic, technological, legal, diplomatic and all other viable and and effective means and capabilities. In this regard, it was confirmed in the Japan-U.S. “2+2” [meeting] in April 2019 that a cyberattack could, in certain circumstances, constitute an armed attack under Article V of the Japan-U.S. Security Treaty. Since cyberattacks have the risk of rapidly developing into a graver situation, Japan will quickly respond to incidents by seamlessly transitioning throughout the process of escalation — from peacetime to large-scale cyberattacks and then to armed attacks. In addition, Japan will continue to maintain and strengthen the deterrence of the Japan-U.S. alliance.
SENTRY: How does Japan’s defense policy address the issue of arms control and nonproliferation?
NOBUTAKA: The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and missiles that could be used to deliver them — as well as the proliferation of weapons and dual-use goods and sensitive technologies that can be diverted to military use — is an imminent issue for the peace and stability of the international community. Japan’s National Security Strategy identifies arms control, disarmament and nonproliferation, including weapons of mass destruction, as one of the important measures among efforts to reinforce a free and open international order. The National Defense Strategy reflects Japan’s readiness to contribute to the improvement of the effectiveness of international organizations and multilateral export-control regimes. It also states that Japan will play an active role in international initiatives for arms control, disarmament and nonproliferation.
SENTRY: How do we make advances in integration in a world that is seemingly so fractured at the moment?
NOBUTAKA: Japan shares with other countries the values of maintaining international order based on the rule of law, and from the perspective of proactive contribution bound to international cooperation, Japan must actively participate in efforts to resolve conflicts and confrontations around the world, provide humanitarian assistance and disaster relief in the event of large-scale international disaster caused by climate change and other factors and address international challenges such as the nonproliferation of weapons of mass destruction. Japan and the U.S. must work together as Allies with shared values based on democracy to meet these challenges.
SENTRY: What strategic deterrence or defense capabilities are you extremely proud of, and what areas are you working on to improve?
NOBUTAKA: As I mentioned earlier, in terms of deterrence, I believe that Japan’s fundamental reinforcement of defense capabilities, extended deterrence by the U.S., and close coordination between Japan and the U.S. will become important. In terms of fundamentally reinforced defense capabilities, Japan has been working to reinforce the following areas: 1) standoff defense capabilities, 2) integrated air and missile defense capabilities, 3) unmanned defense capabilities, 4) cross-domain operations capabilities, 5) command and control and intelligence-related functions, 6) mobile deployment capabilities and civil protection, and 7) sustainability and resiliency.
SENTRY: What role does soft power play in the development of strategic defense planning and what does it look like when applied?
NOBUTAKA: Deterrence plays an important role in the formulation of strategic defense plans. Deterrence is achieved by having our target recognize our desirable end states and make them realize that preventing the end states does not contribute to the target’s interest. We believe that the use of soft power is effective in maintaining deterrence. Specifically, we believe that we can make our deterrence better by informing the international [community] of various activities by the Ministry of Defense and the Self-Defense Forces, their purposes and the international confidence in us, coordinating with [our Ally] and like-minded countries.