The success of ballistic missile defenses facing their first complex, high-stakes combat scenarios in Israel, the Red Sea and Ukraine will encourage militaries globally to invest in the pricey systems, experts say, and intensify missile arms races.
Reuters spoke with six experts who said more militaries would look to invest in ballistic missile defense.
“It’s undeniable that any wealthy country with the technological wherewithal will continue to invest in missile defense,” said Ankit Panda of the U.S.-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, a defense and security think tank. “All of this is a recipe for a conventional arms race.”
European countries such as Germany, the Netherlands, Poland and Sweden already operate Raytheon’s Patriot batteries, the most common Western advanced ballistic missile defense system.
Saudi Arabia has used its Patriots for years to defend against Houthi attacks; it and the United Arab Emirates also operate the Lockheed Martin Terminal High Altitude Air Defense system. Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar have Patriot batteries as well, and Oman has expressed interest in missile defense.
In the U.S., Lockheed Martin won a $17.7 billion contract for a next-generation interceptor for the Ground-Based Midcourse Defense program that is designed to shoot down small numbers of intercontinental ballistic missiles aimed at the United States.
The impact may be most acute in the Indo-Pacific, where the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) has invested heavily in conventionally armed ballistic missiles. A 2023 U.S. Defense Department report said the People’s Liberation Army Rocket Force has about 500 DF-26 missiles, designed to strike targets thousands of kilometers away.
That puts U.S. and Allied bases in Guam and Japan within range of an attack that may only come with 20 to 30 minutes’ warning.
“In the Pacific, you’ll see further interest in missile defense, which will push the Chinese to build more systems,” said Jeffrey Lewis, director of the East Asia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in California. “Countries will want to acquire (offensive) missiles because they see other countries using them. That will drive up demand for missile defenses.”
The CCP rarely discusses its missile arsenal. Reuters