Sentry Staff
The United States Air Force is gearing up for a comprehensive tabletop exercise designed to assess the nation’s preparedness to respond to myriad nuclear-related scenarios. This initiative, announced by Air Force Lt. Gen. Andrew Gebara, deputy chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration, underscores the military’s intensified focus on strategic readiness in an increasingly uncertain global landscape.
Speaking at the Air & Space Forces Association conference near Washington D.C., in September 2024, Gebara posed critical questions that highlight the gravity and complexity of current nuclear threats. “What if, God forbid, there was a low-yield [nuclear weapon] use in Europe tomorrow?” he asked. “Or what if there was a demonstration of nuclear use, or a nuclear test? What if we had to adapt the INDOPACOM [U.S. Indo-Pacific Command] regional fight because a nuclear power had a red line [that meant] we couldn’t fly in certain areas?”
These hypothetical scenarios, Gebara noted, are vital for today’s warfighters to understand from the outset, rather than being confined to diplomatic-level discussions alone. This marks a significant departure from past military practices, where intelligence and analysis of nuclear warfare’s impact were restricted to the highest strategic levels.
During his address, Gebara reflected on the evolution of nuclear threats since the end of the Cold War. He recalled a time when the primary concern revolved around the imminent threat of more than 1,000 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM) launched over the North Pole. Although daunting, Gebara suggested that dealing with such a scenario was relatively straightforward from a tactical perspective, given its limited set of possible responses.
In contrast, modern nuclear threats are far more complex. Today, some ICBMs don’t even appear to be weapons at first, according to Defense One.
During his remarks, Gebara emphasized the necessity for a broadened and nuanced understanding of nuclear warfare. Gebara previously served as deputy director of nuclear operations, Global Operations Directorate, at U.S. Strategic Command (USSTRATCOM).
The tabletop exercise forms part of a broader effort to prepare military personnel for the diverse and evolving nature of nuclear threats. By simulating scenarios, the Air Force aims to ensure that its strategies and responses are robust, adaptive and well-informed. This proactive approach remains essential to maintaining national security and effectively deterring potential nuclear aggression in an increasingly multipolar world.
As the U.S. military continues to adapt to the changing dynamics of global conflict, such exercises highlight the critical importance of readiness and preparedness in safeguarding the nation and its Allies and Partners against today’s unpredictable landscape.