Voice of America News
As North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs become increasingly sophisticated, U.S.-based experts see the United States shifting the focus of its diplomacy from the pursuit of denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula to one of deterrence.
Officially, the U.S. State Department insists that denuclearization remains the primary goal of Washington and Seoul. In a series of email interviews with Voice of America (VOA) Korean, more than half a dozen experts said they saw little hope at the moment that North Korean leader Kim Jong Un could be persuaded to abandon his growing nuclear arsenal and that the U.S. must concentrate instead on seeing that it is never used.
“I think, in practical terms, most Americans believe we have little choice at this point but to prioritize deterrence, at least for the foreseeable future,” Michael O’Hanlon, director of foreign policy research at the Brookings Institution in Washington, said in an email to VOA Korean.
Robert Peters, research fellow for nuclear deterrence and missile defense at the Heritage Foundation, told VOA Korean via email that U.S. lawmakers are questioning whether Pyongyang would even consider abandoning its nuclear weapons. “I think all sides recognize that Kim will not give up nuclear weapons at any price,” Peters said.
Shifting priorities
Negotiations over North Korea’s nuclear program between Washington and Pyongyang have been nearly nonexistent since October 2019.
Peters added, “Bottom line — without question, the ground has shifted regarding how we think about the North Korean nuclear threat.”
Gary Samore, a former White House coordinator for arms control and weapons of mass destruction, said Washington’s shift in direction was inevitable.
“The U.S. government has been forced to place more emphasis on deterrence over denuclearization because Kim Jong Un has shown no willingness to negotiate a nuclear deal or even meet with the U.S. to discuss denuclearization,” Samore told VOA Korean via email. “Instead, North Korea has continued to advance its nuclear and missile program, and the U.S. has responded by strengthening military cooperation with the ROK [Republic of Korea] and Japan, including joint efforts to enhance extended deterrence.”
Markus Garlauskas, director of the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council, told VOA Korean via email it was “fully appropriate” that Washington has been paying more attention in recent years to deterring North Korean aggression than attempting to negotiate denuclearization.
“I have long argued that Kim Jong Un does not intend to give up his nuclear weapons, that the nuclear weapons and missile capabilities of North Korea have grown and will continue to grow, meaning that we in the United States and its allies must adjust our strategy and policy accordingly,” said Garlauskas, who served as the U.S. national intelligence officer for North Korea from 2014 to 2020. “We should not let hopes of negotiations get in the way of making tough decisions to improve deterrence.”
He stressed, however, that “accepting the reality that North Korea is nuclear-armed and will remain so while under Kim Jong Un’s leadership” does not mean that the U.S. should or would give up denuclearization as a goal.
“Our principled stand can and should remain that North Korea must comply with U.N. Security Council resolutions by halting its nuclear and ballistic missile programs and relinquishing its nuclear weapons, and I do think there is still broad agreement on that in Washington,” Garlauskas said.
Sydney Seiler, who until 2023 was the national intelligence officer for North Korea on the U.S. National Intelligence Council, said the U.S. should keep denuclearization as a priority, adding that “denuclearization and deterrence are not mutually exclusive.”
“We have a responsibility on a day-by-day basis to deter provocative actions, coercion, blackmail and even possible invasion by North Korea and have been doing so for the last 70 years of armistice,” said Seiler, who is now a senior adviser on Korean affairs at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “Successfully ensuring deterrence does not mean abandoning the goal of the denuclearization of North Korea.”
Robert Abrams, a retired U.S. Army four-star general who served as commander of U.S. Forces Korea from 2018 to 2021, emphasized that a strategy of deterrence should be clearly differentiated from the goal of denuclearization.
“The U.S. strategic deterrent was never about stopping the North Korean regime from developing their own nukes,” Abrams told VOA Korean in an August 2024 email. “Sanctions and diplomatic efforts were intended to stop North Korea’s nuclear program. The strategic deterrent is to deter North Korea from ever using nuclear weapons, and that has obviously been very successful.”