Reuters
The United States is encouraging the People’s Republic of China (PRC) to break its longstanding resistance to nuclear arms talks, seeing a “limited opportunity” for early two-way conversations on the superpowers’ approach to the issue, a senior U.S. official said.
The renewed U.S. push for nuclear talks comes as U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan met top Chinese officials in Beijing in August 2024 to resolve differences on a broad range of issues.
“We saw some limited opportunity to open, at least the beginnings of conversation on the subject in the last months, but it’s been fits and starts, and I think it will continue to be fits and starts,” said the official, who sought anonymity because the matter is a sensitive one. “They’ve signaled some willingness to start nibbling around the margins of arms control, but then they’re not very forward-leaning about following through on that. So, I would say in 2024 the conversation is slightly more ripe than it was in 2022. But there’s a long way to go for us to be in the type of rigorous dialogue that we should be in.”
Referring to tension in the disputed South China Sea between the PRC and the Philippines, a U.S. treaty Ally, the official said decisions on long-term missile deployments to Manila would depend in part on Chinese actions.
Nuclear strategy, however, remains a sticking point.
The two countries briefly resumed official-level talks over nuclear arms in November 2023, but those negotiations have since stalled. Formal nuclear arms control negotiations had not been expected any time soon, despite U.S. concerns about the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) rapid nuclear weapons buildup, even though semi-official exchanges have resumed. The U.S. Department of Defense in 2023 estimated that Beijing had 500 operational nuclear warheads and will probably field more than 1,000 by 2030. That compares to 1,770 and 1,710 operational warheads deployed by the U.S and Russia, respectively. By 2030, much of Beijing’s weapons would probably be held at higher levels of readiness, according to U.S. defense officials.
Since 2020, the CCP has also modernized its nuclear program, starting production of its next-generation ballistic missile submarine, testing hypersonic glide vehicle warheads and holding regular nuclear-armed sea patrols. Weapons on land, in the air and at sea give the Chinese the “nuclear triad” — a hallmark of a major nuclear power.
The U.S. updated its classified nuclear guidance in 2024, but a White House spokesperson said the update was “not a response to any single entity, country, nor threat,” despite oft-expressed concern about the nuclear arsenals of North Korea, the CCP and Russia.
“We will continue to focus our efforts on reducing nuclear risk by enhancing deterrence and our preference for resolving differences through arms control diplomacy,” said White House spokesperson Sean Savett.