NATO says it is prepared to respond to a potential Russian escalation on the Europe’s eastern flank. “The Alliance is ready, the structure is ready, the Soldiers … the weapons are ready,” Italian Navy Adm. Giuseppe Cavo Dragone, chair of the NATO Military Committee, said during a September 2026 meeting of the NATO’s 32 top officers in Copenhagen, according to Politico Europe magazine. He noted that the Alliance is continuing to increase forces “in number and also in sophistication.”
Russia’s recent activities include:
- German officials said an August 2026 drone attack at the Leipzig/Halle Airport was conducted by suspects from Russia and Belarus. Officials believe the Russian suspect is affiliated with the GRU, Russia’s military intelligence service, according to Politico.
- In September 2026, the Danish military reported that a Russian frigate fired two flares toward a Danish military helicopter sent to take photographs of the vessel in international waters off Denmark, with one flare narrowly missing the aircraft, according to Reuters.
- Also in September, Finland’s air force said Finnish and Swedish fighter jets were scrambled to identify Russian fighters flying in international airspace over the Gulf of Finland, Agence France-Presse reported.
European leaders warn that hybrid threats from Russia are increasing. Europe has faced a growing number of incursions during the past several months, including airspace violations from drones and other aircraft, sabotage, cyberattacks and disinformation. The Danish Defence Intelligence Service released a report in September 2026 that said Russia is likely to increase its hybrid campaign of such attacks, which may appear to fall below the threshold that would trigger a formal conventional military response. The report also said there was a “low but growing risk” that Russia would launch a limited military attack against one or several NATO countries along its border.
Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said Moscow could send drones or missiles into a frontline NATO country “in the next few months” in a staged provocation to test the Alliance, Politico reported. “There is a real risk that drones or other types of missiles could enter the territory of one or several NATO countries on the eastern flank and cause damage,” Tusk said in the country’s Parliament, according to Politico. “The official narrative will be that it was an accident and that there is no reason for anyone to consider any kind of NATO response.”
U.S. Air Force Gen. Alexus Grynkewich, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe, said the Alliance is increasing intelligence-sharing in response to a wave of sabotage and other incidents apparently linked to Russia.
“It’s concerning,” Grynkewich told Reuters. “But we should be calm and confident that we as an Alliance, the most powerful Alliance in history, have the tools that we need and have the mechanisms that we need in order to manage the risk here.” He said the risk of a limited Russian attack on NATO territory was “unlikely but something that we can’t rule out.”
Russia’s increased aggression shows that Russian President Vladimir Putin is losing the war in Ukraine, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte said during a ceremony in New York City marking the anniversary of the September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States. “All the response options are there, and we will use whatever we need,” Rutte said. He said that citizens of the 32 NATO countries can remain calm. “Putin is in a bad place … he is not winning the war in Ukraine.”